Data Dependence is Back, But Not in A Fun Way
Data Dependence is Back, But Not in A Fun Way Bonds definitely paused their long term relationship with economic data in wake of the tariff announcement in early April, which was logical given the headline-drive volatility and uncertainty. 2 weeks ago, the connection looked to be returning. Now over the past 2 days, it's back with a vengeance.&n...
Mortgage Rates Are Actually Higher This Week
Mortgage rates had a nice little run, moving down from last Monday's highs of 6.98% (average, top tier 30yr fixed) to a mid-week low just over 6.80%. Even after yesterday's modest bounce, we were still in stronger territory for the week. But now today, the average lender is back up to 6.90%. While that's not as high as the beginning of last week, it's noticeably above the end-of-week ...
Home Price Appreciation Remains, But Interesting Trend Emerges
Both of the major purveyors of home price indices have been in agreement for the better part of a year that the average home is appreciating between 4 and 5 percent per year. The FHFA House Price Index showed only a 0.1% uptick in February while the Case Shiller Home Price Index rose 0.7%. In annual terms, Case Shiller was at 4.5% and FHFA fell from 5.0 to 3.9%. In the bigger pi...
Mortgage Applications Contract Slightly, But Remain Above 2 Year Average
Mortgage rates were in the process of falling by the end of last week, but they made additional headway during the first half of the present week. That means this week's mortgage application survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) may be reflecting hesitation due to the elevated rates at the beginning of last week. The chart below shows the day to day rate movement (MND) du...
LO/Borrower Engagement, HELOC, LO Tech Tools; Agency and Investor News; Fairly Strong Jobs Numbers
Fortunately for the readers of this Commentary, we don’t receive federal funding, so it won’t be cut… Unlike groups like NPR and PBS which the Trump Administration call “biased.” Most media have advertising as a source of funding, and speaking of ads, Mark Zuckerberg says ads will soon be handled entirely by AI. Doubt it. But for those interested in lending and artificial intelligence, �...
Reasonably Strong Jobs Report. Reasonably Weak Reaction in Bonds
It is shaping up to be a straightforward morning for the bond market. There was a justified and logical amount of anticipation for today's numbers and the reaction is just as logical. Specifically, jobs came in stronger (177k vs 130k). This isn't a big beat as far as beats go (especially considering negative revisions to previous months), but it does push back on fears that the economy sliding tow...
Bonds Brace For More Data-Driven Volatility
Bonds Brace For More Data-Driven Volatility Today's ISM Manufacturing data played the role of coalmine canary today, and although it's not the most vigorous canary anyone's ever seen, it also wasn't dead. That wasn't good for bonds today as ISM is viewed as a good early indicator at times when the market is waiting for a certain shoe to drop (in this case,...
Rates Pull Back Slightly After Stronger Economic Data
After enjoying a calm, steady winning streak so far this week, mortgage rates finally experienced a bump back toward slightly higher levels on Thursday. The move followed the release of a closely watched report on the manufacturing sector. The economic data wasn't strong in outright terms. In fact, it suggested contraction in the sector. But what matters is that it was stronger than the mar...
Secondary Database, AI Information, Consulting, DSCR, Non-QM Products; Freddie Earnings $62 Billion
May Day… whether you celebrate today as “about” halfway between the Northern Hemisphere's Spring equinox and Midsummer solstice associated with maypoles, or a day that commemorates the historic struggles and gains made by workers and the labor movement, mostly associated with communist Russia (which has never been our ally in 80 years), it’s up to you. So, let’s stick with the seasons. A...
ISM Manufacturing Data Surprises Bonds (Not in a Good Way)
2 weeks ago, we got our first hint that the market was once again ready to respond to economic data after a few weeks of tariff headlines being the only game in town. The hint came from the price data inside the S&P Manufacturing PMI data. It was especially notable at the time because it singlehandedly and quite obviously reversed a nice little morning rally following Trump's clarificati...